Posts Tagged ‘Vernon Parker’

21st August
written by Sean Noble






My firm, DC London, commissioned a Arizona primary election poll of likely voters in the Republican primary next Tuesday.


Here are the top lines (crosstabs here):



Ducey – 32%

Smith – 19%

Jones – 16%

Bennett – 14%

Thomas – 7%

Riggs – 2%

Undecided – 10%


At this point, Ducey is all but assured a victory. The only question is how will the rest of the field shape up.  My prediction is that Jones has a little surge at the end and captures the second place spot, while Smith continues to slide and ends up in 3rd.  The greatest mystery of this election, for me, is what happened to Ken Bennett?  He started the race with the most name ID and at 15% of the vote (which at the time was way ahead of everyone else) but he has not moved the needle even a little.


Attorney General

Brnovich – 40%

Horne – 37%

Undecided – 24%


Given that Horne has essentially 100% name ID, the majority of the 24% of undecided are likely to go to Brnovich – so I suspect Brnovich will win by more than six points.


Secretary of State

Reagan – 32%

Pierce  – 30%

Cardon – 15%

Undecided – 23%


This race will likely be the one that goes later into the evening before we know the winner.  Reagan’s small lead is within the margin of error, so it’s a toss up.



DeWit – 23%

Pullen – 21%

Hallman – 19%

Undecided – 37%


This statewide race has the largest number of undecided voters, so it really could go about any way at this point.  DeWit is getting a bit of attention with this video that has the makings of going viral.


Superintendent of Public Instruction

Douglas – 39%

Huppenthal – 34%

Undecided – 28%


It appears that the anti-Common Core message is resonating for little-known Diane Douglas and I think she will upset Huppenthal.


Corporation Commission

(Combined total for first choice and second choice)

Little – 43%

Forese – 35%

Mason – 34%

Parker – 31%


While the second position appears to be a toss up between Forese and Mason, it’s clear that Little will win and Parker will lose.  The decision by the pro-solar folks to try to demonize Little as a “lap dog” and somehow supportive of Obama, seems to have backfired.  And the hits on Parker by the Free Enterprise Club appear to be working.  So the two candidates who have largely been ignored, find themselves basically tied.  Will make for an interesting night.



16th September
written by Sean Noble

Vernon Parker, Mayor of Paradise Valley, AZ, is likely to announce tonight that he is running for Governor.  Thus he will be the first major Republican in Arizona to jump into a race against incumbent Republican Governor Jan Brewer.

So now it gets interesting.  With Parker’s entrance into the race, the line has been crossed – that is, he is the first to make a move sending the signal that he isn’t waiting to see whether Brewer decides to run for re-election or not.  Watch for others to follow suit.

Parker is a solid guy.  The question is whether he’s ready for prime time.  When the Arizona Republic wrote about him considering a run last month, half the story was about alleged legal issues.

He will have the novelty factor in that, at this point, he is the only African-American Republican in the nation running for a Governor’s seat and if he won, he’d be the first African-American Republican Governor in history.  He will also immediately begin to be compared to Obama.

I suspect that this could end up being a crowded Republican primary race.  Besides Parker, others reportedly mulling include Secretary of State Ken Bennett, State Treasurer Dean Martin, former Governor Fife Symington, Tucson attorney John Munger, former US Transportation Secretary Mary Peters, among others.  With a multi-candidate race, who knows what could happen.

One thing is for certain: Jan Brewer has a target on her.