Posts Tagged ‘Tom Horne’

21st August
2014
written by Sean Noble

 

 

 

 

 

My firm, DC London, commissioned a Arizona primary election poll of likely voters in the Republican primary next Tuesday.

 

Here are the top lines (crosstabs here):

 

Governor

Ducey – 32%

Smith – 19%

Jones – 16%

Bennett – 14%

Thomas – 7%

Riggs – 2%

Undecided – 10%

 

At this point, Ducey is all but assured a victory. The only question is how will the rest of the field shape up.  My prediction is that Jones has a little surge at the end and captures the second place spot, while Smith continues to slide and ends up in 3rd.  The greatest mystery of this election, for me, is what happened to Ken Bennett?  He started the race with the most name ID and at 15% of the vote (which at the time was way ahead of everyone else) but he has not moved the needle even a little.

 

Attorney General

Brnovich – 40%

Horne – 37%

Undecided – 24%

 

Given that Horne has essentially 100% name ID, the majority of the 24% of undecided are likely to go to Brnovich – so I suspect Brnovich will win by more than six points.

 

Secretary of State

Reagan – 32%

Pierce  – 30%

Cardon – 15%

Undecided – 23%

 

This race will likely be the one that goes later into the evening before we know the winner.  Reagan’s small lead is within the margin of error, so it’s a toss up.

 

Treasurer

DeWit – 23%

Pullen – 21%

Hallman – 19%

Undecided – 37%

 

This statewide race has the largest number of undecided voters, so it really could go about any way at this point.  DeWit is getting a bit of attention with this video that has the makings of going viral.

 

Superintendent of Public Instruction

Douglas – 39%

Huppenthal – 34%

Undecided – 28%

 

It appears that the anti-Common Core message is resonating for little-known Diane Douglas and I think she will upset Huppenthal.

 

Corporation Commission

(Combined total for first choice and second choice)

Little – 43%

Forese – 35%

Mason – 34%

Parker – 31%

 

While the second position appears to be a toss up between Forese and Mason, it’s clear that Little will win and Parker will lose.  The decision by the pro-solar folks to try to demonize Little as a “lap dog” and somehow supportive of Obama, seems to have backfired.  And the hits on Parker by the Free Enterprise Club appear to be working.  So the two candidates who have largely been ignored, find themselves basically tied.  Will make for an interesting night.

 

 

15th August
2014
written by Sean Noble

My firm, DC London, commissioned a poll for the Arizona Governor’s primary race.  Here is the memo with links to the results.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

To:       Interested Parties

From:  Sean Noble

RE:      Update on State of the Governor’s Race in Arizona – Aug 15, 2014

DC London commissioned a GOP Primary voter statewide poll conducted by Harper Polling. (Top lines and cross tabs)

The findings show that Doug Ducey is in an excellent position to win the Governor’s race by a strong margin.

Here are the current numbers:

Ducey             32%

Smith              21%

Bennett          14%

Jones               12%

Thomas          7%

Riggs               3%

Undecided     10%

 

Below is a comparison of the ballot test in the last four Harper polls:

 

                                       June 27          July 21      July 29       Aug 15

Ducey                         33%                23%         26%                32%

Jones                           15%                21%         15%                12%

Smith                          14%                13%          15%                21%

Bennett                      12%                12%           12%                14%

Thomas                      3%                  7%             11%                7%

Riggs                           2%                  1%              5%                  3%

Undecided                 22%                22%          16%                10%

Ducey enjoys strong support from all corners of Arizona. He leads Smith in Phoenix media market 29-23, in Tucson market 44-12 and Yuma market 25-16.

Doug Ducey will not only win the primary, he is the best choice for Republicans to win the general in November.  His strong lead in the polling and his strong favorable image rating will ensure that Arizona remains in Republican control to stand up to the failure of Washington, D.C. and the Obama administration.

In the Attorney General race, Mark Brnovich has a solid lead over Tom Horne:

Brnovich         41%

Horne             35%

Undecided     24%

A Brnovich primary win will send the Democrats back to the drawing board on trying to figure out how to take on someone who would be the most qualified person ever on day one to walk into the AG’s office.  Felecia Rotellini and her liberal allies have miscalculated their opportunity and will face a formidable candidate in Mark Brnovich.

 

 

14th August
2014
written by Sean Noble

Arizona has had a lively Republican primary this year.  Here are my endorsements for statewide office:

Governor – Doug Ducey

 

 

 

 

 

 

Doug Ducey is the most exciting candidate for Governor we in Arizona have had in a long, long time.  This is an easy call.  Why? He is a successful business leader, a strong conservative, a man of faith, and, most of all, a genuinely great human being.  And, his opponents just don’t stack up.

 

*Disclaimer – I am the Chairman of Conservative Leadership for Arizona, an Independent Expenditure Committee formed to support Doug Ducey for Governor. Of course, I wouldn’t have done that if I didn’t completely support Doug, but figured I’d give the disclaimer anyway.

 

Secretary of State – Justin Pierce

Pierce is a very capable leader who is an up-and-comer in Republican politics.  He deserves your vote.

Wil Cardon does not rise to the level of a serious candidate.

 

Attorney General – Mark Brnovich

I have often commented that Mark Brnovich will be the most qualified individual to ever walk into the AG’s office on the first day.  He is a constitutional scholar, a former prosecutor, former head of a state department, and a tireless advocate for freedom.  He will be a breath of fresh air so sorely needed in the AG’s office.

Tom Horne has abused his office and, if by some miracle he wins the primary, will lose badly to Democrat candidate Felicia Rotellini in the General Election.

*Disclaimer – Mark Bronivch is a client of my firm, DC London. For what it’s worth, I was supportive of Mark running for AG long before he became a client. 

 

State Treasurer – Jeff DeWit

Current State Treasurer Doug Ducey has done a great job running the treasurer’s office, but if you listened to Hugh Hallman or Randy Pullen, you’d think it was a mess.  Jeff DeWit is the only candidate who acknowledges that things are working well in the treasurer’s office and will carry that legacy forward.  He has the right kind of background for managing the state’s investments and will serve well.  He is another strong rising star for the Republican Party.

 

Corporation Commission – Doug Little and Tom Forese 

The corporation commission race this year is a team effort.  Doug Little and Tom Forese are running as a team and Lucy Mason and Vernon Parker are running as a team.

The Mason/Parker team feels like the resurrection of the Democrat team from 2012 of Busching, Newman and Kennedy that dubbed themselves “Arizona’s Solar Team.”  Mason and Parker are unabashedly supportive of taxpayers subsidizing the solar industry and have been supported by the solar industry.  Billionaire crony king, Elon Musk, is the majority shareholder of a company called SolarCity – a rooftop solar system leasing company that is completely dependent on government subsidies to stay afloat.

Given my strong opposition to subsidies and special treatment by government, I think it would be bad for Arizona to elected Mason and Parker.