Posts Tagged ‘Romney’

Obama’s campaign continues to push the narrative that they can win Arizona in November.  As a result, I have accused them of smoking crack.

Last week a couple polls came out that showed Romney and Obama basically dead even in Arizona.  There were breathless stories about how Obama was expanding the map.

To test against those polls, my firm commissioned a poll.  But this poll would be a big sample (900) and would be of likely voters (since the other two polls were of registered voters).

Rather than Romney and Obama in a dead heat, it’s Romney by three lengths.

Romney leads Obama 52 percent to 43 percent among likely voters, and 54 percent to 42 percent among motivated voters.

• 55 percent of respondents have an unfavorable opinion of President Obama
• 55 percent disapprove of his job performance
• 56 percent disapprove of the health care law

Romney is also up by nine percent among independents – 49 percent to 40 percent – and by four percent among women – 49 percent to 45 percent. (You can see the entire poll and cross tabs here.)

So Obama and his team can talk about winning Arizona until they are blue in the face… but it ain’t happening.

The Obama campaign released a web ad today featuring former President Bill Clinton talking about how impressive it was that Obama made the decision to give the green light to an operation that led to Osama Bin Laden’s death.

President Obama is the Commander in Chief and deserves our gratitude for his willingness to make that call.

However, Obama’s ad then questions whether Mitt Romney would have made that same call.  The argument is beyond absurd.  That’s like questioning whether Al Gore would have approved the operation to capture Saddam Hussein – of course he would have.

Here is the Romney campaign response:

“The killing of Osama bin Laden was a momentous day for all Americans and the world, and Governor Romney congratulated the military, our intelligence agencies, and the President. It’s now sad to see the Obama campaign seek to use an event that unified our country to once again divide us, in order to try to distract voters’ attention from the failures of his administration. With 23 million Americans struggling for work, our national debt soaring, and household budgets being squeezed like never before, Mitt Romney is focused on strengthening America at home and abroad.”

Aside from questioning whether Romney would have made the same call, The Weekly Standard makes a great point:

This latest ad contradicts President Obama’s own pledge after he took out bin Laden. “You know, we don’t trot out this stuff as trophies,” Obama told CBS soon after the terrorist mastermind had been taken out. He added: “Americans and people around the world are glad that he’s gone. But we don’t need to spike the football.”

Part of the problem for Obama is that he can’t help giving himself credit for things that don’t only rely on him.

For example, this is an analysis about the difference in the speeches given by President Bush announcing the capture of Saddam Hussein and President Obama announcing the killing of Osama bin Laden.

Here is a synopsis of Obama’s speech on Osama bin Laden:

“Tonight, I can report . . . And so shortly after taking office, I directed Leon Panetta . . . I was briefed on a possible lead to bin Laden . . . I met repeatedly with my national security team . . . I determined that we had enough intelligence to take action. . . . Today, at my direction . . . I’ve made clear . . . Over the years, I’ve repeatedly made clear . . . Tonight, I called President Zardari . . . and my team has also spoken. . .These efforts weigh on me every time I, as Commander-in-Chief . . . Finally, let me say to the families . .. I know that it has, at times, frayed. . . ..”

Compare that with the speech given by George W. Bush on December 14, 2003:

“Good afternoon. Yesterday, December the 13th, at around 8:30 p.m.
Baghdad time, United States military forces captured Saddam Hussein alive.

He was found near a farmhouse outside the city of Tikrit, in a swift raid conducted without casualties. And now the former dictator of Iraq will face the justice he denied to millions.
The capture of this man was crucial to the rise of a free Iraq…

And this afternoon, I have a message for the Iraqi people: You will not have to fear the rule of Saddam Hussein ever again.

All Iraqis who take the side of freedom have taken the winning side.

The goals of our coalition are the same as your goals — sovereignty for your country, dignity for your great culture, and for every Iraqi citizen, the opportunity for a better life…

The operation was carried out with skill and precision by a brave fighting force.
Our servicemen and women and our coalition allies have faced many dangers in the hunt for members of the fallen regime, and in their effort to bring hope and freedom to the Iraqi people.

Their work continues, and so do the risks.

Today, on behalf of the nation, I thank the members of our Armed Forces and I congratulate ‘em.
I also have a message for all Americans: The capture of Saddam Hussein does not mean the end of violence in Iraq.

We still face terrorists who would rather go on killing the innocent than accept the rise of liberty in the heart of the Middle East…

Two different approaches.  It will be interesting if Obama’s approach works as the political message he has made it.

Did you know that Newt Gingrich is still in the presidential race?  No? Apparently you are not alone.

Tuesday was one of the biggest primary days this year (in terms of delegates) and Gingrich was pinning his hopes on moving forward with a win in… Delaware.  Delaware has 17 delegates. Compare that to the delegate counts for the other states that had primaries on Tuesday: Rhode Island (15), Connecticut (28), Pennsylvania (72) and New York (94).

So it makes a lot of sense to judge the future of your campaign in the second smallest state… Not.

It didn’t matter though.  Gingrich lost to Romney by 30 points in Delaware – and Gingrich did two times better in Delaware than in any of the other states on Tuesday.

Mitt Romney is 300 delegates shy of the number needed to be the nominee officially, and that doesn’t count the 72 unallocated delegates in Pennsylvania.

Newt is reportedly “assessing” his campaign’s future. That shouldn’t take more than 15 seconds.

Rick Santorum had a heck of a run.  He has done the right thing, for the right reasons, by stepping aside and allowing Republicans to focus on the most important goal in 2012 – saving the country from a “more flexible” second term Obama.

Yes, I’ve been harping on how this race was over for more than two months, and I’ve expressed frustration with Santorum on occasion, but at the end of the day he has made Mitt Romney a better candidate and better prepared to face Obama in November.

While maybe that isn’t enough to provide Santorum with sainthood, he has been an important part of the debate.

Can’t say the same for Newt Gingrich.

The Maryland primary has already been called for Mitt Romney.  D.C. is expected to go with Romney, as will Wisconsin.

Rick Santorum is out of reasons to stay in this race.  Gingrich isn’t even worth wasting time on.

[UPADTE]

Romney has won huge in D.C. and will have a strong win in Wisconsin.  The fat lady continues to sing.

[UPDATE]

We now have the biggest break in the primary election season – the next elections aren’t until April 24, and full three weeks.  Yes, Santorum leads in Pennsylvania, but what’s the point?  Assuming Santorum can maintain his lead there, which is a big assumption, Romney will win Connecticut, Delaware, New York and Rhode Island.

Budget wunderkind Paul Ryan has endorsed Mitt Romney for President.  With this get, Romney has picked up the endorsement of the two top rising stars in the Republican Party – Ryan and Marco Rubio.

Ryan’s endorsement demonstrates that the conservative intellectual wing of the GOP is now firmly ensconced with Romney.

Tuesday’s primary elections in Wisconsin (Ryan’s home state), Maryland and D.C. will likely be the end of Gingrich’s campaign and should, for all intents and purposes, be the end of Santorum’s campaign.

Conservative star, Senator Marco Rubio, has endorsed Mitt Romney for President.  That is a BIG get for Romney and one that is yet another nail in the coffin for Rick Santorum’s improbable quest for the nomination.

There are still some important conservatives who have not jumped onto Team Romney, but Rubio’s announcement will lead to more and more asking for a jersey.

I suspect we’ll see a couple this weekend.

Mitt Romney’s huge victory in the Illinois primary has effectively ended the GOP nomination process. Regardless of what Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich say, there is no path to the nomination remaining for them.

I have been predicting since January 22nd that Romney has secured the nomination. Back then I wrote that April 24th was his true firewall – and tonight proved that wrong. March 20th will go down in the history books as the moment that Romney secured the nomination.

Now let’s get to the business of a head-to-head between Romney and Obama.

So the headlines today are all about Rick Santorum “doubling down” by winning both the Mississippi and Alabama primaries.  Nary a word about Romney winning Hawaii and American Samoa.

The fascinating thing about the nomination process is the confusion that comes with each primary or caucus. For example, Santorum won Mississippi over Gingrich and Romney came in third. But the delegate allocation is Romney – 14, Santorum – 13, Gingrich – 12. (For an up-to-date breakdown of the delegate count, go here)

Welcome to presidential primary politics.

Santorum’s wins on Tuesday night in Alabama and Mississippi ensure that he remains in the race for the foreseeable future.  There will be increasing pressure on Gingrich to drop out.

As counterintuitive as it may seem, having both Santorum and Gingrich in the race for the Alabama and Mississippi primaries actually benefits Romney.  Had this been a head-to-head between either Santorum or Gingrich versus Romney, Romney would have lost badly.  With both Santorum and Gingrich in the race, Romney finished a close third in both states, which greatly lessens the impact of the losses.

The Deep South was never going to be a good place for Romney in the primary.  As such, Romney should thank both Santorum and Gingrich for hanging in there this long.