Posts Tagged ‘Pennsylvania’
This has been the craziest, most bizarre election cycle in modern history. Hillary Clinton was supposed to have a coronation as the Democratic nominee, but a crazy socialist dragged the process until weeks before the convention. On the Republican side, it took nearly a year to go from 17 candidates to one. And the one was the probably the weakest general election candidate the Republicans could field.
After the crazy ups and downs it all comes down to a few predictable states to try to guess the outcome on November 8th.
Conventional wisdom has Hillary Clinton winning in a landslide. However, this year has been anything but an election following conventional wisdom. While our analysis would put Clinton at a clear advantage of winning, there is a still a narrow path for Trump to get to 270 Electoral College votes.
According to private polling that has not been released to the press, there is a less than one percentage point difference between Trump and Clinton in Florida, Pennsylvania, Nevada, and Iowa. Trump leads Clinton by 4% in Ohio.
While the Democrats typically have better turnout operations than Republicans, if there is a sentiment shift with late-deciders, it is plausible that Trump could add Florida, Pennsylvania, Nevada, and Iowa to his column. If that happens, and Clinton wins the remainder of the traditional swing states the outcome is 270 Electoral College votes for Trump and 268 for Clinton.
Think about that: 270-268. Guess who would be screaming “rigged election!” at that point.
However, if Trump can’t tip it over in Florida, Pennsylvania, Nevada, and Iowa, Clinton ends up with more than 320 Electoral College votes.
There is another crazy possibility. In Utah Trump leads Independent candidate Evan McMullin 32%-30%, with Clinton at 24%. If Trump does win those states as outlined above, but loses Utah to McMullin, that would put the Electoral college count at 268 Clinton, 264 Trump, and 6 McMullin. If no one has the required 270 votes, then the election is determined by the U.S. House of Representatives.
Now THAT would be some post-election drama!
Did you know that Newt Gingrich is still in the presidential race? No? Apparently you are not alone.
Tuesday was one of the biggest primary days this year (in terms of delegates) and Gingrich was pinning his hopes on moving forward with a win in… Delaware. Delaware has 17 delegates. Compare that to the delegate counts for the other states that had primaries on Tuesday: Rhode Island (15), Connecticut (28), Pennsylvania (72) and New York (94).
So it makes a lot of sense to judge the future of your campaign in the second smallest state… Not.
It didn’t matter though. Gingrich lost to Romney by 30 points in Delaware – and Gingrich did two times better in Delaware than in any of the other states on Tuesday.
Mitt Romney is 300 delegates shy of the number needed to be the nominee officially, and that doesn’t count the 72 unallocated delegates in Pennsylvania.
Newt is reportedly “assessing” his campaign’s future. That shouldn’t take more than 15 seconds.