Posts Tagged ‘Nevada’

1st November
2016
written by Sean Noble

 

images-12

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

This has been the craziest, most bizarre election cycle in modern history. Hillary Clinton was supposed to have a coronation as the Democratic nominee, but a crazy socialist dragged the process until weeks before the convention. On the Republican side, it took nearly a year to go from 17 candidates to one. And the one was the probably the weakest general election candidate the Republicans could field.

After the crazy ups and downs it all comes down to a few predictable states to try to guess the outcome on November 8th.

Conventional wisdom has Hillary Clinton winning in a landslide. However, this year has been anything but an election following conventional wisdom. While our analysis would put Clinton at a clear advantage of winning, there is a still a narrow path for Trump to get to 270 Electoral College votes.

According to private polling that has not been released to the press, there is a less than one percentage point difference between Trump and Clinton in Florida, Pennsylvania, Nevada, and Iowa. Trump leads Clinton by 4% in Ohio.

While the Democrats typically have better turnout operations than Republicans, if there is a sentiment shift with late-deciders, it is plausible that Trump could add Florida, Pennsylvania, Nevada, and Iowa to his column. If that happens, and Clinton wins the remainder of the traditional swing states the outcome is 270 Electoral College votes for Trump and 268 for Clinton.

Think about that: 270-268. Guess who would be screaming “rigged election!” at that point.

However, if Trump can’t tip it over in Florida, Pennsylvania, Nevada, and Iowa, Clinton ends up with more than 320 Electoral College votes.

There is another crazy possibility. In Utah Trump leads Independent candidate Evan McMullin 32%-30%, with Clinton at 24%. If Trump does win those states as outlined above, but loses Utah to McMullin, that would put the Electoral college count at 268 Clinton, 264 Trump, and 6 McMullin. If no one has the required 270 votes, then the election is determined by the U.S. House of Representatives.

Now THAT would be some post-election drama!

 

19th January
2016
written by Sean Noble

images-10

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

You know that 30 year old living rent-free in his parents’ basement? The one who got straight A’s and has a graduate degree but fails to make it in the real world? Well, in the energy sector, that’s the solar industry.

Proponents of solar insist on government subsidies and regulatory climates favorable to solar at the expense of traditional energy sources. For decades, the argument has been that government investment will help solar to launch. Yet, just like the overly-indulgent parents of the millennial basement dweller are actually impeding his development, so too are solar proponents creating an entire industry that cannot function in the marketplace.

Take for example SolarCity. Last month, SolarCity was “forced to eliminate more than 550 jobs in Nevada” after the Public Utilities Commission (PUC) decided to end “net metering.” Net metering is a program that pays retail price for excess power that solar users send back to the electrical grid. SolarCity built their entire business model upon this program, providing solar panels to its customers at no initial, upfront cost and then pocketing the government subsidies.

As the Wall Street Journal pointed out in December, SolarCity was aware that depending upon net metering for the long-term was a risky gamble, telling investors “our ability to sell solar energy systems and the electricity they generate may be adversely impacted by changes in net metering policies including reductions in the amount or value of credit that customers receive through net metering.” According to Nevada’s PUC, solar users in Southern Nevada receive a $623 subsidy per year, while those in the northern part of the state receive $471—paid for by the non-solar ratepayers who are typically lower income.

To believe that this ruse would continue forever and build a business upon it was just foolish. Those who argue for continued subsidies for the solar industry enable the irresponsible decisions that hinder solar’s growth. If a solar company cannot make it in Nevada or Arizona or other Western sunshine states without considerable subsidies, it can never make it as the viable energy option that solar proponents purport it to be. Let’s end these subsidies everywhere and force innovation in the solar industry to become self-sufficient. After all, if you truly love something, shouldn’t you set it free?