Posts Tagged ‘Ken Bennett’

21st August
2014
written by Sean Noble

 

 

 

 

 

My firm, DC London, commissioned a Arizona primary election poll of likely voters in the Republican primary next Tuesday.

 

Here are the top lines (crosstabs here):

 

Governor

Ducey – 32%

Smith – 19%

Jones – 16%

Bennett – 14%

Thomas – 7%

Riggs – 2%

Undecided – 10%

 

At this point, Ducey is all but assured a victory. The only question is how will the rest of the field shape up.  My prediction is that Jones has a little surge at the end and captures the second place spot, while Smith continues to slide and ends up in 3rd.  The greatest mystery of this election, for me, is what happened to Ken Bennett?  He started the race with the most name ID and at 15% of the vote (which at the time was way ahead of everyone else) but he has not moved the needle even a little.

 

Attorney General

Brnovich – 40%

Horne – 37%

Undecided – 24%

 

Given that Horne has essentially 100% name ID, the majority of the 24% of undecided are likely to go to Brnovich – so I suspect Brnovich will win by more than six points.

 

Secretary of State

Reagan – 32%

Pierce  – 30%

Cardon – 15%

Undecided – 23%

 

This race will likely be the one that goes later into the evening before we know the winner.  Reagan’s small lead is within the margin of error, so it’s a toss up.

 

Treasurer

DeWit – 23%

Pullen – 21%

Hallman – 19%

Undecided – 37%

 

This statewide race has the largest number of undecided voters, so it really could go about any way at this point.  DeWit is getting a bit of attention with this video that has the makings of going viral.

 

Superintendent of Public Instruction

Douglas – 39%

Huppenthal – 34%

Undecided – 28%

 

It appears that the anti-Common Core message is resonating for little-known Diane Douglas and I think she will upset Huppenthal.

 

Corporation Commission

(Combined total for first choice and second choice)

Little – 43%

Forese – 35%

Mason – 34%

Parker – 31%

 

While the second position appears to be a toss up between Forese and Mason, it’s clear that Little will win and Parker will lose.  The decision by the pro-solar folks to try to demonize Little as a “lap dog” and somehow supportive of Obama, seems to have backfired.  And the hits on Parker by the Free Enterprise Club appear to be working.  So the two candidates who have largely been ignored, find themselves basically tied.  Will make for an interesting night.

 

 

15th August
2014
written by Sean Noble

My firm, DC London, commissioned a poll for the Arizona Governor’s primary race.  Here is the memo with links to the results.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

To:       Interested Parties

From:  Sean Noble

RE:      Update on State of the Governor’s Race in Arizona – Aug 15, 2014

DC London commissioned a GOP Primary voter statewide poll conducted by Harper Polling. (Top lines and cross tabs)

The findings show that Doug Ducey is in an excellent position to win the Governor’s race by a strong margin.

Here are the current numbers:

Ducey             32%

Smith              21%

Bennett          14%

Jones               12%

Thomas          7%

Riggs               3%

Undecided     10%

 

Below is a comparison of the ballot test in the last four Harper polls:

 

                                       June 27          July 21      July 29       Aug 15

Ducey                         33%                23%         26%                32%

Jones                           15%                21%         15%                12%

Smith                          14%                13%          15%                21%

Bennett                      12%                12%           12%                14%

Thomas                      3%                  7%             11%                7%

Riggs                           2%                  1%              5%                  3%

Undecided                 22%                22%          16%                10%

Ducey enjoys strong support from all corners of Arizona. He leads Smith in Phoenix media market 29-23, in Tucson market 44-12 and Yuma market 25-16.

Doug Ducey will not only win the primary, he is the best choice for Republicans to win the general in November.  His strong lead in the polling and his strong favorable image rating will ensure that Arizona remains in Republican control to stand up to the failure of Washington, D.C. and the Obama administration.

In the Attorney General race, Mark Brnovich has a solid lead over Tom Horne:

Brnovich         41%

Horne             35%

Undecided     24%

A Brnovich primary win will send the Democrats back to the drawing board on trying to figure out how to take on someone who would be the most qualified person ever on day one to walk into the AG’s office.  Felecia Rotellini and her liberal allies have miscalculated their opportunity and will face a formidable candidate in Mark Brnovich.

 

 

14th August
2014
written by Sean Noble

Arizona has had a lively Republican primary this year.  Here are my endorsements for statewide office:

Governor – Doug Ducey

 

 

 

 

 

 

Doug Ducey is the most exciting candidate for Governor we in Arizona have had in a long, long time.  This is an easy call.  Why? He is a successful business leader, a strong conservative, a man of faith, and, most of all, a genuinely great human being.  And, his opponents just don’t stack up.

 

*Disclaimer – I am the Chairman of Conservative Leadership for Arizona, an Independent Expenditure Committee formed to support Doug Ducey for Governor. Of course, I wouldn’t have done that if I didn’t completely support Doug, but figured I’d give the disclaimer anyway.

 

Secretary of State – Justin Pierce

Pierce is a very capable leader who is an up-and-comer in Republican politics.  He deserves your vote.

Wil Cardon does not rise to the level of a serious candidate.

 

Attorney General – Mark Brnovich

I have often commented that Mark Brnovich will be the most qualified individual to ever walk into the AG’s office on the first day.  He is a constitutional scholar, a former prosecutor, former head of a state department, and a tireless advocate for freedom.  He will be a breath of fresh air so sorely needed in the AG’s office.

Tom Horne has abused his office and, if by some miracle he wins the primary, will lose badly to Democrat candidate Felicia Rotellini in the General Election.

*Disclaimer – Mark Bronivch is a client of my firm, DC London. For what it’s worth, I was supportive of Mark running for AG long before he became a client. 

 

State Treasurer – Jeff DeWit

Current State Treasurer Doug Ducey has done a great job running the treasurer’s office, but if you listened to Hugh Hallman or Randy Pullen, you’d think it was a mess.  Jeff DeWit is the only candidate who acknowledges that things are working well in the treasurer’s office and will carry that legacy forward.  He has the right kind of background for managing the state’s investments and will serve well.  He is another strong rising star for the Republican Party.

 

Corporation Commission – Doug Little and Tom Forese 

The corporation commission race this year is a team effort.  Doug Little and Tom Forese are running as a team and Lucy Mason and Vernon Parker are running as a team.

The Mason/Parker team feels like the resurrection of the Democrat team from 2012 of Busching, Newman and Kennedy that dubbed themselves “Arizona’s Solar Team.”  Mason and Parker are unabashedly supportive of taxpayers subsidizing the solar industry and have been supported by the solar industry.  Billionaire crony king, Elon Musk, is the majority shareholder of a company called SolarCity – a rooftop solar system leasing company that is completely dependent on government subsidies to stay afloat.

Given my strong opposition to subsidies and special treatment by government, I think it would be bad for Arizona to elected Mason and Parker.

 

7th January
2014
written by Sean Noble

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Arizona State Treasurer Doug Ducey dropped a money bomb yesterday announcing he had raised a whopping $1,050,000 in his exploratory bid for Governor.  His campaign announced that he will report more than $900,000 cash on hand – showing a remarkably low burn rate.

Even more impressive is that the majority of the funds were raised under the lower contribution limits.  Ducey’s campaign reported that 80% of the roughly 1,000 donors gave less than $1,000.  If only half of those folks gave again to meet the new max contribution, that would garner Ducey another $1.2 million.

The depth and breadth of Ducey’s support is stunning and bound to send shivers down the spines of any potential opponents.

This will certainly throw a wrench in the thinking of Mesa Mayor Scott Smith, who has been coy about his plans.  Rather than announcing that he is running, as he is expected to do in the next few days, look for him to announce an exploratory committee so he can continue to “think about it.”  Sometime this spring, he will officially bow out. This will be his face-saving way of avoiding the buzzsaw that would be the Ducey campaign.

As for other potential opponents, Secretary of State of Ken Bennett, who has had an exploratory committee for the better part of a year, likely doesn’t even have 1,000 five-dollar contributions to count towards his receiving Clean Elections money.  Christine Jones is expected to spend a lot of her own money, but money is only one part of the equation that makes a good candidate (exhibit 1: Jim Pedersen, Buzz Mills, Wil Cardon, and John Hurlburd).

Ducey is what we in the political hackery business call “the complete package.”  He is a successful businessman, established leader, smart as a whip, willing to work his tail off, and has great people skills. He is a dream candidate and someone who will make a superb Governor for our great state.

 

*For the record, Doug Ducey is not a client of mine or my firm, nor do I play any role in his campaign for Governor.

 

10th January
2009
written by Sean Noble

 Ken Bennett

 

Incoming Governor Jan Brewer’s selection of Ken Bennett for Secretary of State is brilliant.  Not only does Bennett have a long and solid record of public service, he is smart, witty, personable and tireless.  In the 2010 election, he will be less Secretary of State and more “Vice-Governor”, running essentially as a running mate with Brewer – and they are a perfect electoral pair.

Bennett is the ideal surrogate for nearly every conceivable audience.  And I would expect he’s going to spend a fair amount of time on the road for the next two years. 

If anyone has any doubt about Brewer running for a full term in 2010, this appointment provides the clarity.  I know, she can’t actually talk yet about running in 2010 – she hasn’t even ascended to the 9th floor officially, but the course has been mapped out, and it’s a straight line to the 2010 ballot.

Obviously, the selection of Bennett isn’t going to be much of a surprise to anyone.  He was on every speculators short list.  But it shows the Brewer is going to be governing from a position of strength, and she’s not afraid to have a strong, conservative leader standing next to her.

I was privately cheering for Bennett (I say privately, because no one really asked my opinion).  And since that cheering worked, I’m going to continue cheering for Rusty Bowers to be tapped as Director of Department of Environmental Quality.  Now that would send some shockwaves…