Posts Tagged ‘Jeff DeWit’

28th October
2014
written by Sean Noble

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Republicans are going to have a good night next Tuesday, a very good night.  And it will be, in large part, because President Obama is so unpopular.  In the latest Reuters/Ipsos poll, Obama’s fav/unfav among likely voters is at a dismal 36%-61%.

For the U.S. Senate, Republicans will win in West Virginia, Montana and South Dakota.  Republicans will also win in North Carolina, Arkansas, Iowa and Colorado.

Mitch McConnell will win in Kentucky.

So without knowing what happens in either Louisiana or Georgia (both likely to go to run-offs), Republicans are a lock to retake the U.S. Senate.

In the U.S. House, Republicans will have a net gain of at least 10 seats – giving them the strongest majority since the 1940’s.  Those will include wins by Andy Tobin in AZ-01 and Martha McSally in AZ-02.

In Arizona it will be a top-to-bottom sweep of statewide races. Doug Ducey will beat Fred DuVal by close to double digits, Michele Reagan will defeat Terry Goddard, Mark Brnovich will defeat Felicia Rotellini, Jeff DeWit is essentially already the next Treasurer, Diane Douglas will win as Superintendent of Public Instruction and Doug Little and Tom Forese will be the next Corporation Commissioners.

You doubt it’s a bad year for Democrats?  Watch network news – and you will see no stories about how bad an election it will be for Democrats.  Compare that to 2006, when Republicans were headed for a terrible night, and it was all over the networks for weeks on end.  The silence is deafening.

 

 

21st August
2014
written by Sean Noble

 

 

 

 

 

My firm, DC London, commissioned a Arizona primary election poll of likely voters in the Republican primary next Tuesday.

 

Here are the top lines (crosstabs here):

 

Governor

Ducey – 32%

Smith – 19%

Jones – 16%

Bennett – 14%

Thomas – 7%

Riggs – 2%

Undecided – 10%

 

At this point, Ducey is all but assured a victory. The only question is how will the rest of the field shape up.  My prediction is that Jones has a little surge at the end and captures the second place spot, while Smith continues to slide and ends up in 3rd.  The greatest mystery of this election, for me, is what happened to Ken Bennett?  He started the race with the most name ID and at 15% of the vote (which at the time was way ahead of everyone else) but he has not moved the needle even a little.

 

Attorney General

Brnovich – 40%

Horne – 37%

Undecided – 24%

 

Given that Horne has essentially 100% name ID, the majority of the 24% of undecided are likely to go to Brnovich – so I suspect Brnovich will win by more than six points.

 

Secretary of State

Reagan – 32%

Pierce  – 30%

Cardon – 15%

Undecided – 23%

 

This race will likely be the one that goes later into the evening before we know the winner.  Reagan’s small lead is within the margin of error, so it’s a toss up.

 

Treasurer

DeWit – 23%

Pullen – 21%

Hallman – 19%

Undecided – 37%

 

This statewide race has the largest number of undecided voters, so it really could go about any way at this point.  DeWit is getting a bit of attention with this video that has the makings of going viral.

 

Superintendent of Public Instruction

Douglas – 39%

Huppenthal – 34%

Undecided – 28%

 

It appears that the anti-Common Core message is resonating for little-known Diane Douglas and I think she will upset Huppenthal.

 

Corporation Commission

(Combined total for first choice and second choice)

Little – 43%

Forese – 35%

Mason – 34%

Parker – 31%

 

While the second position appears to be a toss up between Forese and Mason, it’s clear that Little will win and Parker will lose.  The decision by the pro-solar folks to try to demonize Little as a “lap dog” and somehow supportive of Obama, seems to have backfired.  And the hits on Parker by the Free Enterprise Club appear to be working.  So the two candidates who have largely been ignored, find themselves basically tied.  Will make for an interesting night.

 

 

14th August
2014
written by Sean Noble

Arizona has had a lively Republican primary this year.  Here are my endorsements for statewide office:

Governor – Doug Ducey

 

 

 

 

 

 

Doug Ducey is the most exciting candidate for Governor we in Arizona have had in a long, long time.  This is an easy call.  Why? He is a successful business leader, a strong conservative, a man of faith, and, most of all, a genuinely great human being.  And, his opponents just don’t stack up.

 

*Disclaimer – I am the Chairman of Conservative Leadership for Arizona, an Independent Expenditure Committee formed to support Doug Ducey for Governor. Of course, I wouldn’t have done that if I didn’t completely support Doug, but figured I’d give the disclaimer anyway.

 

Secretary of State – Justin Pierce

Pierce is a very capable leader who is an up-and-comer in Republican politics.  He deserves your vote.

Wil Cardon does not rise to the level of a serious candidate.

 

Attorney General – Mark Brnovich

I have often commented that Mark Brnovich will be the most qualified individual to ever walk into the AG’s office on the first day.  He is a constitutional scholar, a former prosecutor, former head of a state department, and a tireless advocate for freedom.  He will be a breath of fresh air so sorely needed in the AG’s office.

Tom Horne has abused his office and, if by some miracle he wins the primary, will lose badly to Democrat candidate Felicia Rotellini in the General Election.

*Disclaimer – Mark Bronivch is a client of my firm, DC London. For what it’s worth, I was supportive of Mark running for AG long before he became a client. 

 

State Treasurer – Jeff DeWit

Current State Treasurer Doug Ducey has done a great job running the treasurer’s office, but if you listened to Hugh Hallman or Randy Pullen, you’d think it was a mess.  Jeff DeWit is the only candidate who acknowledges that things are working well in the treasurer’s office and will carry that legacy forward.  He has the right kind of background for managing the state’s investments and will serve well.  He is another strong rising star for the Republican Party.

 

Corporation Commission – Doug Little and Tom Forese 

The corporation commission race this year is a team effort.  Doug Little and Tom Forese are running as a team and Lucy Mason and Vernon Parker are running as a team.

The Mason/Parker team feels like the resurrection of the Democrat team from 2012 of Busching, Newman and Kennedy that dubbed themselves “Arizona’s Solar Team.”  Mason and Parker are unabashedly supportive of taxpayers subsidizing the solar industry and have been supported by the solar industry.  Billionaire crony king, Elon Musk, is the majority shareholder of a company called SolarCity – a rooftop solar system leasing company that is completely dependent on government subsidies to stay afloat.

Given my strong opposition to subsidies and special treatment by government, I think it would be bad for Arizona to elected Mason and Parker.