Posts Tagged ‘Jeff DeWit’

28th October
2014
written by Sean Noble

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Republicans are going to have a good night next Tuesday, a very good night.  And it will be, in large part, because President Obama is so unpopular.  In the latest Reuters/Ipsos poll, Obama’s fav/unfav among likely voters is at a dismal 36%-61%.

For the U.S. Senate, Republicans will win in West Virginia, Montana and South Dakota.  Republicans will also win in North Carolina, Arkansas, Iowa and Colorado.

Mitch McConnell will win in Kentucky.

So without knowing what happens in either Louisiana or Georgia (both likely to go to run-offs), Republicans are a lock to retake the U.S. Senate.

In the U.S. House, Republicans will have a net gain of at least 10 seats – giving them the strongest majority since the 1940’s.  Those will include wins by Andy Tobin in AZ-01 and Martha McSally in AZ-02.

In Arizona it will be a top-to-bottom sweep of statewide races. Doug Ducey will beat Fred DuVal by close to double digits, Michele Reagan will defeat Terry Goddard, Mark Brnovich will defeat Felicia Rotellini, Jeff DeWit is essentially already the next Treasurer, Diane Douglas will win as Superintendent of Public Instruction and Doug Little and Tom Forese will be the next Corporation Commissioners.

You doubt it’s a bad year for Democrats?  Watch network news – and you will see no stories about how bad an election it will be for Democrats.  Compare that to 2006, when Republicans were headed for a terrible night, and it was all over the networks for weeks on end.  The silence is deafening.

 

 

21st August
2014
written by Sean Noble

 

 

 

 

 

My firm, DC London, commissioned a Arizona primary election poll of likely voters in the Republican primary next Tuesday.

 

Here are the top lines (crosstabs here):

 

Governor

Ducey – 32%

Smith – 19%

Jones – 16%

Bennett – 14%

Thomas – 7%

Riggs – 2%

Undecided – 10%

 

At this point, Ducey is all but assured a victory. The only question is how will the rest of the field shape up.  My prediction is that Jones has a little surge at the end and captures the second place spot, while Smith continues to slide and ends up in 3rd.  The greatest mystery of this election, for me, is what happened to Ken Bennett?  He started the race with the most name ID and at 15% of the vote (which at the time was way ahead of everyone else) but he has not moved the needle even a little.

 

Attorney General

Brnovich – 40%

Horne – 37%

Undecided – 24%

 

Given that Horne has essentially 100% name ID, the majority of the 24% of undecided are likely to go to Brnovich – so I suspect Brnovich will win by more than six points.

 

Secretary of State

Reagan – 32%

Pierce  – 30%

Cardon – 15%

Undecided – 23%

 

This race will likely be the one that goes later into the evening before we know the winner.  Reagan’s small lead is within the margin of error, so it’s a toss up.

 

Treasurer

DeWit – 23%

Pullen – 21%

Hallman – 19%

Undecided – 37%

 

This statewide race has the largest number of undecided voters, so it really could go about any way at this point.  DeWit is getting a bit of attention with this video that has the makings of going viral.

 

Superintendent of Public Instruction

Douglas – 39%

Huppenthal – 34%

Undecided – 28%

 

It appears that the anti-Common Core message is resonating for little-known Diane Douglas and I think she will upset Huppenthal.

 

Corporation Commission

(Combined total for first choice and second choice)

Little – 43%

Forese – 35%

Mason – 34%

Parker – 31%

 

While the second position appears to be a toss up between Forese and Mason, it’s clear that Little will win and Parker will lose.  The decision by the pro-solar folks to try to demonize Little as a “lap dog” and somehow supportive of Obama, seems to have backfired.  And the hits on Parker by the Free Enterprise Club appear to be working.  So the two candidates who have largely been ignored, find themselves basically tied.  Will make for an interesting night.