Posts Tagged ‘GOP nomination’

8th April
2016
written by Sean Noble

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Every election cycle has what pundits call “inflection points”: moments in a campaign that have some defining impact. Moments like Rick Perry in a 2012 debate forgetting the third department of the federal government he would shut down. Or like Marco Rubio deciding to go to Trump’s level of rancor.

Interestingly, the Wisconsin primary was one of those inflection points for both the GOP and Democratic races.

Ted Cruz’s big win all but assured that Republicans are headed to a contested convention in Cleveland. Yes, it’s still possible for Donald Trump to secure 1,237 delegates by the time the last vote is cast on June 7th in California, but it is very improbable.

And, with Bernie Sanders’s trouncing of Hillary Clinton in Wisconsin, he continues to chip away at what most had believed was an insurmountable lead in delegates. Part of why Clinton’s lead has appeared so daunting is because the vast majority of super delegates have committed to her over Sanders (469-31).

However, if you count only the pledged delegates (those are the normal delegates that you win in primaries and caucuses) Hillary leads Sanders by 1,298 to 1,079 – just 221. There are still 1,977 unpledged delegates remaining.

Still, Clinton has all those super delegates. But here is the caveat: a large number of those super delegates are Democrat elected officials (think Members of Congress, state legislators, etc.) who are ultimately going to act on self-interest. If they start to feel the pressure of Sanders’s momentum and see Sanders continue to tighten the race, Clinton could suffer defections of super delegates just like she did in 2008 when late in the primary season Barack Obama got the big mo.

Does Bernie have the big mo? Well, he has won 7 of the last 8 contests. He will win Wyoming this coming weekend. Polling shows that voters in New York, the state Hillary represented in the Senate and she should win handily, are warming to Sanders. Two months ago, Clinton led by more than 20 points; now it’s barely 10 points.

It’s looking increasingly likely that both the Republicans and the Democrats will face contested conventions. And that will be good for Republicans for two reasons: 1) the Democratic convention will be more chaotic than the Republican convention. Democratic base activists tend to be much more aggressive (especially towards law enforcement) than Republican activists and will create more tension, 2) and the Democratic convention comes the week after the Republican convention, so as we enter the General Election phase of the cycle the voters will have the imagery of chaos and tension seared into their minds from the nightly news coverage.

For Democrats, this could be Chicago 1968 all over again: 1968 Democratic Convention Riots

 

 

3rd March
2012
written by Sean Noble

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Mitt Romney is, as country band “Big and Rich” would sing, “rollin’, rollin’, rollin.’” Mitt Romney continues to show broad strength in the GOP nomination contest with a big win in the Washington State caucuses.  He bested Ron Paul and Rick Santorum (who are only a couple hundred votes apart) by more than 10 points.

This gives Romney additional momentum going into “Super Tuesday” and the most important contest that day, Ohio.

Unless Santorum can pull off some solid wins next Tuesday, it’s going to be hard for him to justify continuing his campaign.  Gingrich has no business continuing forward, but since his head is in lunar mode, he still hasn’t recognized he has long overstayed his welcome.

For all intents and purposes, the general election is on – and it’s time for Republicans as a party to focus all of their energy on making Obama a one term President.

28th February
2012
written by Sean Noble


 

 

 

 

 

 

As expected, Romney coasted to a solid 47-26 win in Arizona, and topped Rick Santorum in Michigan 41-38, which puts him in the driver’s seat to lock up the nomination next week on Super Tuesday. At this point, Newt Gingrich (who came in third in Arizona and fourth in Michigan) should drop out, something that he really should have done weeks ago.

As I wrote back in January, Romney is well-positioned to secure the nomination. Last week, I wrote that Romney was going to win Arizona by double digits and also win Michigan.

Romney has proven his ability to win when it matters, and Santorum should join with Gingrich and drop out, conceding the nomination to Romney, so we can move on as a party.

Super Tuesday next week will solidify Romney’s status as the Republican nominee, and for either Gingrich or Santorum to stay in the race only wastes resources that could be used to beat President Obama in November.

 

10th February
2012
written by Sean Noble

So the Occupy Wall Street folks have invaded the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) and tried to disrupt one of the largest annual gatherings of Conservative activists.

(UPDATE)

As unearthed by Daily Caller, apparently, some protestors don’t know what CPAC is or why they are protesting.  But they are making $60 per person to show up. Isn’t America great!  Oh… wait… that wouldn’t fit the OWS narrative, would it?

While the OWS movement is still trying to be relevant, it is going to continue to lose influence and momentum because of the radical elements that keep it going.  The Democrats who identified and associated with OWS early on will see their words come back to haunt them between now and November.

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Obama’s supposed “accommodation” to try to quell the outcry of the HHS ruling that would force Catholic-run institutions to offer contraception and abortion-inducing drugs in their health insurance coverage does not accommodate at all.  To require health insurance companies to offer such services free of charge to those covered does not change the fundamental conscience issue raised by the Church.  The only reason these services are available “for free” is because there is a health plan at all.

This is an underhanded political ploy.  Obama is essentially maintaining the status quo, while at the same time appearing to be reasonable.  He knows the Church will still oppose, but he is counting on Bishops looking unreasonable to parishioners.

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The Republican nomination for President has to be the most interesting primary process in U.S. history.  Wow.

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Can you believe that it’s February already?

4th February
2012
written by Sean Noble

Romney thumped Newt Gingrich in Nevada and rather than do an election night rally, Gingrich decided to do a press conference instead, which was obviously to convince the press that he really, really was going to stay in the race, really.

The more Gingrich says, “We will go to Tampa,” the more I think he is trying to convince himself.  He compared himself to Reagan in the 1976 GOP nomination, I’m not sure anyone sees it the same way, and that was the year Reagan lost.

Gingrich is a smart and visionary guy, but he is his own worst enemy.  It is also clear that he truly despises Mitt Romney, and that could create a real poisonous atmosphere as Gingrich gets more desperate to be relevant.  Going on about Romney being “substantially dishonest” is not going to make the unity effort any easier later on.