Posts Tagged ‘Gingrich’

11th February
2012
written by Sean Noble

Mitt Romney enjoyed a big day on Saturday.  First he won the straw poll at CPAC – something that no one believed was possible.  Then, later Saturday, he won the Maine caucus, edging out Ron Paul, whom everyone thought was going to win the Maine caucus.  Paul even skipped CPAC to spend time in Maine, and yet lost both.

This puts Romney at more than 100 delegates and Ron Paul with fewer than 20.  Gingrich is under 30 delegates and Santorum has just more than 70.

This makes Arizona and Michigan important contests at the end of the month.  Santorum has predicted he will win Michigan, and he might. But if he doesn’t, Romney will be riding momentum into Super Tuesday with a sure win in Arizona.

One thing is for sure, Gingrich is done.  CPAC is not the establishment crowd – as evidenced by Ron Paul’s straw poll wins in 2010 and 2011 – but the self-proclaimed anti-establishment candidate, Newt Gingrich, only garnered 15% of the vote, for a distant 3rd place finish.

The CPAC straw poll results are very interesting.  Romney winning CPAC challenges the narrative that Mitt Romney can’t get the support of the most conservative elements of the GOP.  CPAC is the most conservative of the base GOP, and handing Romney a solid straw poll victory will give Romney additional momentum.

While this primary contest seems to be dragging on forever, remember, it’s only Feb. 11.  Obama didn’t secure the nomination from Hillary Clinton until June of 2008.  There is still plenty of time for the GOP to resolve the contest and then focus on beating Obama.

 

8th February
2012
written by Sean Noble

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Just to prove that politics is interesting, Rick Santorum has risen from the ashes and swept three primary/caucus contests yesterday in Colorado, Minnesota and Missouri.

From a delegate count standpoint, it is a pretty meaningless day – but now the supposed two-man race between Romney and Gingrich has shifted to Romney and Santorum.

As I wrote after the South Carolina primary, Romney shouldn’t panic.  With Michigan and Arizona coming up at the end of the month, Romney should be riding the momentum of two solid wins going into Super Tuesday.

The best news coming out of last night is the crushing defeats for Gingrich in Minnesota and Colorado (he wasn’t on the ballot in Missouri).  Gingrich is done.

Congratulations to Santorum.  He now gets a chance to prove whether he can translate wins into a real campaign.

 

4th February
2012
written by Sean Noble

Romney thumped Newt Gingrich in Nevada and rather than do an election night rally, Gingrich decided to do a press conference instead, which was obviously to convince the press that he really, really was going to stay in the race, really.

The more Gingrich says, “We will go to Tampa,” the more I think he is trying to convince himself.  He compared himself to Reagan in the 1976 GOP nomination, I’m not sure anyone sees it the same way, and that was the year Reagan lost.

Gingrich is a smart and visionary guy, but he is his own worst enemy.  It is also clear that he truly despises Mitt Romney, and that could create a real poisonous atmosphere as Gingrich gets more desperate to be relevant.  Going on about Romney being “substantially dishonest” is not going to make the unity effort any easier later on.

3rd February
2012
written by Sean Noble

Remember this line from my blog back on January 19th?

Seriously, how ironic is it that the guy everyone is trying to show as the alternative to the “weird Mormon guy” is the one who has actually tried to practice plural marriage?

Now we read that Former Supreme Court Justice Sandra Day O’Connor hits the same theme last weekend at the Alfalfa Club Dinner as reported in the Washington Post.

But according to two accounts, O’Connor waded into the Republican presidential campaign with a joke about Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich that drew a lot of laughter.

According to ESPN’s Tony Kornheiser, who was at the Capital Hilton for the dinner, O’Connor said that of the two leading Republican candidates, “one is a practicing polygamist, and he’s not even the Mormon.”

Romney is a Mormon, and often points out that he and his wife, Ann, have been married for 42 years. Gingrich’s three marriages have been much discussed in the campaign. The Reliable Source column in The Washington Post had a similar account.

I guess imitation is the greatest form of flattery, so Justice O’Connor can continue to read my blog and steal my stuff anytime!

31st January
2012
written by Sean Noble

Romney’s solid win in Florida effectively ends the GOP nomination.  Romney is firmly in the driver’s seat, and while Ron Paul will continue to collect delegates for the next month or so, Gingrich and Santorum are essentially done.

The next two big primaries are Michigan and Arizona, both of which Romney will win in a big way, giving him the “big Mo” going into Super Tuesday.

It’s time for Republicans to coalesce behind Romney and focus on beating President Obama in November.

28th January
2012
written by Sean Noble

 

 

 

 

 

 

Mitt Romney is on track to wrap up the GOP nomination with a win on Tuesday in Florida.  He had a strong performance in Thursday’s debate and polls out today show him up anywhere between eight and 11 points over Newt Gingrich.

This turnaround demonstrates that he can get the job down, something that will serve him well going into a General Election against President Obama.

As Gingrich enjoyed his surge and win in South Carolina, political observers speculated that he would eventually implode. What worried most GOP operatives was that the implosion would come after he secured the Republican nomination.  As if on cue, he promptly began to sink, and Romney again surged just in time for the Florida primary.

While it has been messy, the process has made Romney a better candidate and better prepared to face the onslaught that awaits him from the Democrats.

After Romney wins Florida, it will be nearly impossible for Santorum or Gingrich to make the case to stay in the race.  Ron Paul will stay in, because he continues to raise enough money to plod along, and he may even do pretty well in some of the upcoming caucuses (Maine, Nevada, Colorado and Minnesota) but Romney will more than likely win the Arizona and Michigan primaries, and he will be an unstoppable force going into Super Tuesday.

It’s been a wild ride – and it’s not quite over, but there are likely very few surprises that can happen now.

27th January
2012
written by Sean Noble

Heading into the Florida Presidential Primary, the soap opera that is the GOP nominating process is becoming a full-on hurricane.

Newt Gingrich’s polling line looks like a heart monitor, Ron Paul is wandering in the sugar cane fields looking for relevance, Rick Santorum can’t think of a place he will actually win and Mitt Romney is starting to get that terrified look in his eye as he realizes this isn’t his just for the taking.

That is one of the more interesting aspects of the last week.  We actually get to see Romney express some emotion, because nothing makes you more emotional than fear.

And guess what?  Newt Gingrich getting the nomination scares the crap out of me.

That’s kind of the story for the last day or two: conservatives realizing “Oh my gosh, Newt might win this!”  And that isn’t a happy exclamation point.

Thursday’s debate didn’t really change the make up of the race, so let’s get Tuesday over with and move on.

26th January
2012
written by Sean Noble

Bob Robb, one of the best political commentators in Arizona, wrote a very insightful column yesterday headlined “Gingrich anti-establishment?”

Exactly.

There are some real gems worth repeating here:

Sometimes politics is staged as farce, as in the narrative in the Republican presidential primary that Newt Gingrich is the anti-establishment candidate.

The guy is a former speaker of the House of Representatives, for goodness sake. You know, third in line to be president.

Since being ousted as speaker, Gingrich has made himself wealthy as a political entrepreneur and operator. In fact, he got ousted in part because he starting doing too much of that while he was speaker.

***

Gingrich was as responsible as anyone for turning the Republican Party into the party of pork. Under his speakership, earmarks as a re-election tool proliferated.

In fact, virtually everything the tea party doesn’t like about the Republican establishment can be traced to Gingrich and his Majority Whip, later Majority Leader, Tom DeLay.

I remember the frustration of some of the true believers of the Class of ’94 when Gingrich and DeLay were advising the freshmen that the best way to win re-election was to send the bacon home.  Guys like my former boss John Shadegg and a his cohorts like Tom Coburn and Mark Sanford fought those guys every day.

Gingrich is no conservative.

22nd January
2012
written by Sean Noble

 

 

 

 

 

 

Mitt Romney was never going to win South Carolina.  Yes, I know polling had him ahead for a short time after Iowa and New Hampshire when it looked like Newt was done (again).  South Carolina is a part of the Bible belt and a Mormon is not going to do well in a Republican primary when there are other options.

Newt, as flawed as he is, benefited from conservative backlash at the media for the release of Marianne Gingrich’s interview just days before the South Carolina vote.  We saw the same kind of bounce of support for Herman Cain in the initial coverage of his alleged harassment issues.  Conservatives know there is a media bias, and if you are being personally attacked in the media, then you must be ok.

All this to say that as remote a possibility as even I thought it was to have three different winners after the first three contests, that’s exactly where we are.

Florida is Romney’s to lose.  It’s a big, expensive state, which has had absentee ballots out for almost three weeks and Romney has been the only candidate with a broad presence there.  It could be his firewall.

However, if Newt’s momentum coming out of South Carolina translates to a Florida victory, then it’s probably going to take until Super Tuesday (March 6) to settle this thing.  Of course, it could take until April 3, when Texas holds it’s primary, or even until April 24th when New York and Pennsylvania hold theirs.  I don’t think it’s going to go all the way until California’s primary in early June. The longer it goes, the more likely that Newt implodes.

Following Florida, Romney probably does better than Newt in the Nevada and Colorado caucuses and the Arizona and Michigan primaries.  Even if Newt hangs in there, Super Tuesday will be tough, because he isn’t even on the ballot in one of the larger states that day (Virginia).

Here’s how I see Super Tuesday breaking down, if Newt is still actively campaigning:

Newt probably wins Alaska, Georgia, Oklahoma and Tennessee – that’s 204 delegates.

Romney takes Idaho, Massachusetts, North Dakota, Ohio, Vermont, Virginia and Wyoming – that’s 262 delegates.

While Romney may want to see this thing buttoned down and done in the next couple weeks, he is by no means in trouble if he loses Florida.  His true firewall is April 24, where he will sweep New York, Pennsylvania, Connecticut, Delaware and Rhode Island.

No need to panic, just keep that steady, methodical machine going and don’t stray from the message of free enterprise and economic freedom.  It worked for Reagan.

21st January
2012
written by Sean Noble

I am officially on the Mitt Romney for President bandwagon. For the first time since Ronald Reagan, we have a candidate who is explicitly campaigning on the principles of free enterprise and economic freedom, something that has been sorely missing from Republican leadership since Reagan left the White House.

At the end of the day, our nation’s greatness is made possible by the freedoms that we are guaranteed by our Declaration of Independence, Constitution and Bill of Rights. For someone like Newt Gingrich to criticize Mitt Romney for engaging in free enterprise is not only weak, but morally bankrupt; he should be ashamed.

For the sake of our great nation, I hope and pray that Gingrich flames out soon – if he is our nominee, when it comes to the fundamentals of our foundational freedoms, how is he different than Barack Obama?

One thing for sure, this isn’t over by a long shot.

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