Posts Tagged ‘Florida’
This has been the craziest, most bizarre election cycle in modern history. Hillary Clinton was supposed to have a coronation as the Democratic nominee, but a crazy socialist dragged the process until weeks before the convention. On the Republican side, it took nearly a year to go from 17 candidates to one. And the one was the probably the weakest general election candidate the Republicans could field.
After the crazy ups and downs it all comes down to a few predictable states to try to guess the outcome on November 8th.
Conventional wisdom has Hillary Clinton winning in a landslide. However, this year has been anything but an election following conventional wisdom. While our analysis would put Clinton at a clear advantage of winning, there is a still a narrow path for Trump to get to 270 Electoral College votes.
According to private polling that has not been released to the press, there is a less than one percentage point difference between Trump and Clinton in Florida, Pennsylvania, Nevada, and Iowa. Trump leads Clinton by 4% in Ohio.
While the Democrats typically have better turnout operations than Republicans, if there is a sentiment shift with late-deciders, it is plausible that Trump could add Florida, Pennsylvania, Nevada, and Iowa to his column. If that happens, and Clinton wins the remainder of the traditional swing states the outcome is 270 Electoral College votes for Trump and 268 for Clinton.
Think about that: 270-268. Guess who would be screaming “rigged election!” at that point.
However, if Trump can’t tip it over in Florida, Pennsylvania, Nevada, and Iowa, Clinton ends up with more than 320 Electoral College votes.
There is another crazy possibility. In Utah Trump leads Independent candidate Evan McMullin 32%-30%, with Clinton at 24%. If Trump does win those states as outlined above, but loses Utah to McMullin, that would put the Electoral college count at 268 Clinton, 264 Trump, and 6 McMullin. If no one has the required 270 votes, then the election is determined by the U.S. House of Representatives.
Now THAT would be some post-election drama!
Mitt Romney is on track to wrap up the GOP nomination with a win on Tuesday in Florida. He had a strong performance in Thursday’s debate and polls out today show him up anywhere between eight and 11 points over Newt Gingrich.
This turnaround demonstrates that he can get the job down, something that will serve him well going into a General Election against President Obama.
As Gingrich enjoyed his surge and win in South Carolina, political observers speculated that he would eventually implode. What worried most GOP operatives was that the implosion would come after he secured the Republican nomination. As if on cue, he promptly began to sink, and Romney again surged just in time for the Florida primary.
While it has been messy, the process has made Romney a better candidate and better prepared to face the onslaught that awaits him from the Democrats.
After Romney wins Florida, it will be nearly impossible for Santorum or Gingrich to make the case to stay in the race. Ron Paul will stay in, because he continues to raise enough money to plod along, and he may even do pretty well in some of the upcoming caucuses (Maine, Nevada, Colorado and Minnesota) but Romney will more than likely win the Arizona and Michigan primaries, and he will be an unstoppable force going into Super Tuesday.
It’s been a wild ride – and it’s not quite over, but there are likely very few surprises that can happen now.
Heading into the Florida Presidential Primary, the soap opera that is the GOP nominating process is becoming a full-on hurricane.
Newt Gingrich’s polling line looks like a heart monitor, Ron Paul is wandering in the sugar cane fields looking for relevance, Rick Santorum can’t think of a place he will actually win and Mitt Romney is starting to get that terrified look in his eye as he realizes this isn’t his just for the taking.
That is one of the more interesting aspects of the last week. We actually get to see Romney express some emotion, because nothing makes you more emotional than fear.
And guess what? Newt Gingrich getting the nomination scares the crap out of me.
Thursday’s debate didn’t really change the make up of the race, so let’s get Tuesday over with and move on.