Posts Tagged ‘Ducey’

3rd November
2014
written by Sean Noble

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November 4, 2014 will be remembered as the day that the GOP swept all statewide offices.

Here are the final predictions for the Arizona races:

Governor – Ducey 54.5%

SOS – Reagan 52.4%

AG – Brnovich 56.3%

CD 1 – Tobin 53.5%

CD 2 – McSally 54%

Corp Comm – Little and Forese 52%

The wild card is CD 9, where Krysten Sinema is in a dogfight with Wendy Rogers. If the tide turns, look for Rogers to squeak out a narrow win over Sinema.

Post Script: In the race for Superintendent of public instruction, Diane Douglas will win.

27th August
2014
written by Sean Noble

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Doug Ducey won a commanding victory in Tuesday’s Arizona Republican primary election.  It was the most crowded Republican primary for Governor in state history, and yet Ducey won by an astounding 15 points. He exceeded everyone’s expectations, including mine.

Now Ducey faces Fred DuVal in November.  Polling shows this race as basically tied with a large number of undecided voters.  This is not surprising, but the contours of the race haven’t really been set, so we’ll see movement in the numbers within a week or so.

The biggest upset of the night was Mark Brnovich defeating Tom Horne in the Attorney General race.  Mark was outspent by a large margin, but Horne’s negatives were an anchor around his neck.  Mark was a tireless campaigner with amazing energy that provided primary voters with a strong viable alternative to Horne.

The other big upset was Diane Douglas defeating Superintendent of Public Instruction John Huppenthal. It was an old-fashioned, school principal office spanking.

In the Secretary of State race, Michele Reagan won by a strong margin and will dispatch her Democrat opponent, Terry Goddard, in November giving yet another losing effort.

Jeff DeWit, the singing phenom, won big and will become the next Treasurer of Arizona because the Democrats didn’t even bother to field a candidate.

Finally, Doug Little and Tom Forese proved that running as a team has benefits – both receiving almost the exact same number of votes for Corporation Commission and will face two radical leftists for the general.

Let’s look more closely at the primary race for Governor. My firm, DC London, did independent expenditure work in the race, and one of the more satisfying outcomes was how good the polling was.  We relied on two different pollsters, David Flaherty at Magellen Strategies and Brock McCleary at Harper Polling.  Below is a chart of the two latest polls by each of them respectively and the election result.

   Candidate

Aug. 19-20  (Harper) 

Aug. 25  (Magellan)

Election Result

Ducey

32

33.3

37.3

Smith

19

23.4

22.3

Jones

16

17.2

16.7

Bennett

14

9.4

10.5

Thomas

7

6.3

8.3

Riggs

2

3.3

4.5

Undecided

10

7.2

NA

The most interesting thing in looking at the polls and the results of Tuesday is that Ducey captured the majority of the late undecided voters.  Those late deciders have by described by the late political wizard Steve Shadegg as “Indifferents.”  The Indifferents are people who don’t really pay attention to politics and may or may not vote.  They usually make up their mind in the last three days or so of an election.  In this day and age with early voting, some of them are the folks who get their early ballot, set it on the counter and then realize weeks later on Election Day they need to fill it out and drop it off at the polling location.

They are important voters because in close elections, they determine the outcome.  Ducey didn’t need them to break heavily in his favor, but it turns out they did, which created a spike in his numbers.

In a six-way race, it is unusual for one candidate to get the majority of the undecided.  In Ducey’s case, he added four percent to his margin, leaving only three percent of the vote to go to other candidates.  Interestingly, the beneficiaries of those remaining voters were Thomas and Riggs, although it did them no good.

Now the Democrats will begin to spin that they are in a strong position to win these statewide races.  Obviously, I beg to differ.

Ducey has won statewide in a general and has become a very strong candidate.  DuVal has run for office once before, and it didn’t work out well. He finished 4th in a Congressional primary in which he garnered a whopping 8,600 votes. Not much of a base of support to jump into the big leagues.  He will actually suffer from not having had a primary opponent.  He and his campaign will likely make a couple missteps that they wouldn’t otherwise make as a result of not being in a day-to-day battle.

Felicia Rotellini couldn’t beat Tom Horne when he was weakened by some scandal four years ago.  She will have a difficult time matching Brnovich’s energy and passion.

Michele Reagan is a bright star in state politics and voters will go with her youthful enthusiasm over perennial candidate Terry Goddard.

When it’s all said and done, Arizona will remain a strong Republican state for the next four years.

 

 

21st August
2014
written by Sean Noble

 

 

 

 

 

My firm, DC London, commissioned a Arizona primary election poll of likely voters in the Republican primary next Tuesday.

 

Here are the top lines (crosstabs here):

 

Governor

Ducey – 32%

Smith – 19%

Jones – 16%

Bennett – 14%

Thomas – 7%

Riggs – 2%

Undecided – 10%

 

At this point, Ducey is all but assured a victory. The only question is how will the rest of the field shape up.  My prediction is that Jones has a little surge at the end and captures the second place spot, while Smith continues to slide and ends up in 3rd.  The greatest mystery of this election, for me, is what happened to Ken Bennett?  He started the race with the most name ID and at 15% of the vote (which at the time was way ahead of everyone else) but he has not moved the needle even a little.

 

Attorney General

Brnovich – 40%

Horne – 37%

Undecided – 24%

 

Given that Horne has essentially 100% name ID, the majority of the 24% of undecided are likely to go to Brnovich – so I suspect Brnovich will win by more than six points.

 

Secretary of State

Reagan – 32%

Pierce  – 30%

Cardon – 15%

Undecided – 23%

 

This race will likely be the one that goes later into the evening before we know the winner.  Reagan’s small lead is within the margin of error, so it’s a toss up.

 

Treasurer

DeWit – 23%

Pullen – 21%

Hallman – 19%

Undecided – 37%

 

This statewide race has the largest number of undecided voters, so it really could go about any way at this point.  DeWit is getting a bit of attention with this video that has the makings of going viral.

 

Superintendent of Public Instruction

Douglas – 39%

Huppenthal – 34%

Undecided – 28%

 

It appears that the anti-Common Core message is resonating for little-known Diane Douglas and I think she will upset Huppenthal.

 

Corporation Commission

(Combined total for first choice and second choice)

Little – 43%

Forese – 35%

Mason – 34%

Parker – 31%

 

While the second position appears to be a toss up between Forese and Mason, it’s clear that Little will win and Parker will lose.  The decision by the pro-solar folks to try to demonize Little as a “lap dog” and somehow supportive of Obama, seems to have backfired.  And the hits on Parker by the Free Enterprise Club appear to be working.  So the two candidates who have largely been ignored, find themselves basically tied.  Will make for an interesting night.