Posts Tagged ‘Christine Jones’

21st August
2014
written by Sean Noble

 

 

 

 

 

My firm, DC London, commissioned a Arizona primary election poll of likely voters in the Republican primary next Tuesday.

 

Here are the top lines (crosstabs here):

 

Governor

Ducey – 32%

Smith – 19%

Jones – 16%

Bennett – 14%

Thomas – 7%

Riggs – 2%

Undecided – 10%

 

At this point, Ducey is all but assured a victory. The only question is how will the rest of the field shape up.  My prediction is that Jones has a little surge at the end and captures the second place spot, while Smith continues to slide and ends up in 3rd.  The greatest mystery of this election, for me, is what happened to Ken Bennett?  He started the race with the most name ID and at 15% of the vote (which at the time was way ahead of everyone else) but he has not moved the needle even a little.

 

Attorney General

Brnovich – 40%

Horne – 37%

Undecided – 24%

 

Given that Horne has essentially 100% name ID, the majority of the 24% of undecided are likely to go to Brnovich – so I suspect Brnovich will win by more than six points.

 

Secretary of State

Reagan – 32%

Pierce  – 30%

Cardon – 15%

Undecided – 23%

 

This race will likely be the one that goes later into the evening before we know the winner.  Reagan’s small lead is within the margin of error, so it’s a toss up.

 

Treasurer

DeWit – 23%

Pullen – 21%

Hallman – 19%

Undecided – 37%

 

This statewide race has the largest number of undecided voters, so it really could go about any way at this point.  DeWit is getting a bit of attention with this video that has the makings of going viral.

 

Superintendent of Public Instruction

Douglas – 39%

Huppenthal – 34%

Undecided – 28%

 

It appears that the anti-Common Core message is resonating for little-known Diane Douglas and I think she will upset Huppenthal.

 

Corporation Commission

(Combined total for first choice and second choice)

Little – 43%

Forese – 35%

Mason – 34%

Parker – 31%

 

While the second position appears to be a toss up between Forese and Mason, it’s clear that Little will win and Parker will lose.  The decision by the pro-solar folks to try to demonize Little as a “lap dog” and somehow supportive of Obama, seems to have backfired.  And the hits on Parker by the Free Enterprise Club appear to be working.  So the two candidates who have largely been ignored, find themselves basically tied.  Will make for an interesting night.

 

 

15th August
2014
written by Sean Noble

My firm, DC London, commissioned a poll for the Arizona Governor’s primary race.  Here is the memo with links to the results.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

To:       Interested Parties

From:  Sean Noble

RE:      Update on State of the Governor’s Race in Arizona – Aug 15, 2014

DC London commissioned a GOP Primary voter statewide poll conducted by Harper Polling. (Top lines and cross tabs)

The findings show that Doug Ducey is in an excellent position to win the Governor’s race by a strong margin.

Here are the current numbers:

Ducey             32%

Smith              21%

Bennett          14%

Jones               12%

Thomas          7%

Riggs               3%

Undecided     10%

 

Below is a comparison of the ballot test in the last four Harper polls:

 

                                       June 27          July 21      July 29       Aug 15

Ducey                         33%                23%         26%                32%

Jones                           15%                21%         15%                12%

Smith                          14%                13%          15%                21%

Bennett                      12%                12%           12%                14%

Thomas                      3%                  7%             11%                7%

Riggs                           2%                  1%              5%                  3%

Undecided                 22%                22%          16%                10%

Ducey enjoys strong support from all corners of Arizona. He leads Smith in Phoenix media market 29-23, in Tucson market 44-12 and Yuma market 25-16.

Doug Ducey will not only win the primary, he is the best choice for Republicans to win the general in November.  His strong lead in the polling and his strong favorable image rating will ensure that Arizona remains in Republican control to stand up to the failure of Washington, D.C. and the Obama administration.

In the Attorney General race, Mark Brnovich has a solid lead over Tom Horne:

Brnovich         41%

Horne             35%

Undecided     24%

A Brnovich primary win will send the Democrats back to the drawing board on trying to figure out how to take on someone who would be the most qualified person ever on day one to walk into the AG’s office.  Felecia Rotellini and her liberal allies have miscalculated their opportunity and will face a formidable candidate in Mark Brnovich.

 

 

7th January
2014
written by Sean Noble

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Arizona State Treasurer Doug Ducey dropped a money bomb yesterday announcing he had raised a whopping $1,050,000 in his exploratory bid for Governor.  His campaign announced that he will report more than $900,000 cash on hand – showing a remarkably low burn rate.

Even more impressive is that the majority of the funds were raised under the lower contribution limits.  Ducey’s campaign reported that 80% of the roughly 1,000 donors gave less than $1,000.  If only half of those folks gave again to meet the new max contribution, that would garner Ducey another $1.2 million.

The depth and breadth of Ducey’s support is stunning and bound to send shivers down the spines of any potential opponents.

This will certainly throw a wrench in the thinking of Mesa Mayor Scott Smith, who has been coy about his plans.  Rather than announcing that he is running, as he is expected to do in the next few days, look for him to announce an exploratory committee so he can continue to “think about it.”  Sometime this spring, he will officially bow out. This will be his face-saving way of avoiding the buzzsaw that would be the Ducey campaign.

As for other potential opponents, Secretary of State of Ken Bennett, who has had an exploratory committee for the better part of a year, likely doesn’t even have 1,000 five-dollar contributions to count towards his receiving Clean Elections money.  Christine Jones is expected to spend a lot of her own money, but money is only one part of the equation that makes a good candidate (exhibit 1: Jim Pedersen, Buzz Mills, Wil Cardon, and John Hurlburd).

Ducey is what we in the political hackery business call “the complete package.”  He is a successful businessman, established leader, smart as a whip, willing to work his tail off, and has great people skills. He is a dream candidate and someone who will make a superb Governor for our great state.

 

*For the record, Doug Ducey is not a client of mine or my firm, nor do I play any role in his campaign for Governor.