Posts Tagged ‘battleground states’

3rd December
2011
written by Sean Noble

The Obama campaign has repeatedly claimed that they view Arizona as an opportunity to “expand the map” for their electoral strategy.

They are smoking crack.

The last time a Democrat Presidential candidate won Arizona was Bill Clinton (with 47% of the vote, to Dole’s 45% of the vote) in 1996 – and that was only because Ross Perot’s 8% showing siphoned off votes that would largely have otherwise gone to Bob Dole.

This New York Times article breathlessly reports how there are many things that point to the possibility of an Obama victory in Arizona: Sen. Russell Pearce being recalled, Daniel Valenzuela being elected to the Phoenix City Council, a Democrat being elected Mayor of Tucson.

Poor Helene Cooper doesn’t realize how absurd her examples look.

Sen. Russell Pearce’s loss in the recall election had nothing to do with Hispanic voters – in fact, Jerry Lewis’s margin of victory demonstrates that Lewis won among Republicans in that race.

Daniel Valenzuela won… wait for it… “an overwhelmingly Latino district.”  It’s like saying that Hispanic support for Democrats is surging because Ed Pastor got re-elected.

And Tucson?  Enough said.

Yes, the Hispanic population has grown by big numbers in the last decade – but it isn’t even at its high point, which was about three years ago.

There is something that is really important to understand when it comes to the Hispanic vote in Arizona.  They just don’t turnout in large enough numbers to sway a statewide race.

To wit: in 2008, Rep. Ed Pastor won in a landslide with 72% of the vote in Congressional District 4.  That 72% consisted of 89,721 votes.

That same year, Democrat candidate Bob Lord only garnered 42% of the vote against Rep. John Shadegg.  That 42% consisted of 115,759 votes.

So you have a losing Democrat in CD3 getting 26,000 more votes than Ed Pastor who wins in a landslide in his majority-Hispanic district.  That is a turnout problem, and it’s not going to be fixed anytime soon – especially by a President who has not delivered the hope and change that he campaigned on in 2008.

However, I hope and pray they spend millions in Arizona in their futile effort.  It means less money will spent in true battleground states.

So, welcome to Arizona!  Maybe your campaign spending will help boost our economy!