Posts Tagged ‘Bachmann’

1st January
2012
written by Sean Noble

2012 starts with a bang if you are into politics.  There is mounting anticipation for the Iowa Caucuses and who will be winners and who will be losers.

Amidst all the machinations, there are a couple things that stand out to me.

The collapse of Gingrich in Iowa demonstrates once again that negative campaigning can work.  Newt’s problem has been he has given his opponents way too much material to attack him.  I still think his ad about global warming with Nancy Pelosi from a few years ago is the most damning hit on him.

Santorum’s surge demonstrates the power of the social conservative vote in Iowa.  The active evangelical base in Iowa still can’t stomach voting for Romney and they are starting to coalesce around Santorum as Bachmann and Perry just haven’t proven they can get the job done.

The one mistake that Santorum has made is setting an expectation that he will win Iowa.  He could come in 2nd or even 3rd and get enough of a bounce that if Gingrich continued to falter, he could take advantage of the void.  At this point, because of the expectation of a Santorum win, if he doesn’t, he’s probably done.

While Romney has stayed steady, and the Gingrich threat is dissipating, I think Ron Paul still has a chance to win Iowa.  He has the best ground game there, and he is more likely to attract a broader base of non-Republicans who can show up on Caucus night, register as Republicans, and vote for Paul.

I still think it’s possible that we could have three different winners in the first three contests: Paul or Santorum in Iowa, Romney in New Hampshire and Gingrich in South Carolina (where he still leads in polls, for now).

If Gingrich does win South Carolina, that means we are in for a long, hard slog, not unlike what the Obama-Clinton primary looked like in 2008 when it was June before it was decided.

One thing is certain: 2012 is going to be one of the most interesting political years in modern history.

Buckle up and hang on – it’s going to be a wild ride!