Obama’s campaign continues to push the narrative that they can win Arizona in November. As a result, I have accused them of smoking crack.
Last week a couple polls came out that showed Romney and Obama basically dead even in Arizona. There were breathless stories about how Obama was expanding the map.
To test against those polls, my firm commissioned a poll. But this poll would be a big sample (900) and would be of likely voters (since the other two polls were of registered voters).
Rather than Romney and Obama in a dead heat, it’s Romney by three lengths.
Romney leads Obama 52 percent to 43 percent among likely voters, and 54 percent to 42 percent among motivated voters.
- 55 percent of respondents have an unfavorable opinion of President Obama
- 55 percent disapprove of his job performance
- 56 percent disapprove of the health care law
Romney is also up by nine percent among independents – 49 percent to 40 percent – and by four percent among women – 49 percent to 45 percent. (You can see the entire poll and cross tabs here.)
So Obama and his team can talk about winning Arizona until they are blue in the face… but it ain’t happening.