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13th March
2012
written by Sean Noble

Santorum’s wins on Tuesday night in Alabama and Mississippi ensure that he remains in the race for the foreseeable future.  There will be increasing pressure on Gingrich to drop out.

As counterintuitive as it may seem, having both Santorum and Gingrich in the race for the Alabama and Mississippi primaries actually benefits Romney.  Had this been a head-to-head between either Santorum or Gingrich versus Romney, Romney would have lost badly.  With both Santorum and Gingrich in the race, Romney finished a close third in both states, which greatly lessens the impact of the losses.

The Deep South was never going to be a good place for Romney in the primary.  As such, Romney should thank both Santorum and Gingrich for hanging in there this long.

 

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3 Comments

  1. 14/03/2012

    So something that just came a little clearer by looking at total numbers. Ron Paul is a player. I dont think Mitt will reach 1144, but if Paul releases his delegates to Mitt for a prime time speaking spot and Rand as vp maybe that will lock it up for Mitt I think. This could be interesting.

  2. Mark Wrighton
    14/03/2012

    As someone “on the ground” in Mississippi (not sure if you remember me, Sean, but I was an APSA Congressional Fellow and on the staff of the RPC in 2005), this is spot on…Romney can actually claim a victory of sorts by only losing the MS/AL delegate count by a handful of delegates…his overall lead is still intact, and Santorum and Gingrich probably don’t have the $$$ to go the distance…

    As for Rand Paul being pick for VP…that’s too big a price to pay for a handful of delegates and a state that is going to be red for sure in November…Romney is better off in a floor fight with a promise to make Rubio the VP and carry Florida…

  3. 14/03/2012

    Good point mark. Maybe not the vp spot, maybe its a trade for a speaking spot and an admin job for Ron. But either way its a big chunk that will make a difference if Mitt is just short of the 1144

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