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11th February
2012
written by Sean Noble

Mitt Romney enjoyed a big day on Saturday.  First he won the straw poll at CPAC – something that no one believed was possible.  Then, later Saturday, he won the Maine caucus, edging out Ron Paul, whom everyone thought was going to win the Maine caucus.  Paul even skipped CPAC to spend time in Maine, and yet lost both.

This puts Romney at more than 100 delegates and Ron Paul with fewer than 20.  Gingrich is under 30 delegates and Santorum has just more than 70.

This makes Arizona and Michigan important contests at the end of the month.  Santorum has predicted he will win Michigan, and he might. But if he doesn’t, Romney will be riding momentum into Super Tuesday with a sure win in Arizona.

One thing is for sure, Gingrich is done.  CPAC is not the establishment crowd – as evidenced by Ron Paul’s straw poll wins in 2010 and 2011 – but the self-proclaimed anti-establishment candidate, Newt Gingrich, only garnered 15% of the vote, for a distant 3rd place finish.

The CPAC straw poll results are very interesting.  Romney winning CPAC challenges the narrative that Mitt Romney can’t get the support of the most conservative elements of the GOP.  CPAC is the most conservative of the base GOP, and handing Romney a solid straw poll victory will give Romney additional momentum.

While this primary contest seems to be dragging on forever, remember, it’s only Feb. 11.  Obama didn’t secure the nomination from Hillary Clinton until June of 2008.  There is still plenty of time for the GOP to resolve the contest and then focus on beating Obama.

 

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1 Comment

  1. Darden
    13/02/2012

    Congrats to Romney on Maine…but after taking a pretty hard schellacking on Tuesday he needed a boost. I think you are correct that Newt is on the wane and expect the Newt votes to go at least two thirds to Santorum.

    That means that Santorum will be within 5 points of Mitt and strengthen his position dramatically.

    I said very early in this race it was going to be long and protracted, and Mitt is doing a little better that I predicted (I didn’t see him getting more that 30%). As conservatives drop out, I dont see Mitt garnering those votes – as I predicted. As long as Ron Paul stays in the race, Santorum won’t be able to take a commanding lead. So it is a standoff for a bit longer.

    As long as Romney can hold off a head to head run against Santorum, he can stay ahead in delegate count.

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