“The only poll that counts is the one taken on Election Day.” It’s a line used thousands of times a year, and I’m pretty sure it was first used by the late Stephen Shadegg – campaign extraordinaire and father of Arizona Congressman John Shadegg.
Here is the totality of what you need to know about the efficacy of the poll:
“The pollster is known as a Democratic firm, and the survey was automated and done via telephone.” (emphasis added)
So this was an autodial, robo-call? It is a known fact that Republicans have less tolerance for automated phone calls than Democrats (ok, maybe not a “known fact” but anecdotally, it takes more calls to Republican households than Democrat households to get the same number of respondents on a robo-call survey – trust me, I’ve seen it.)
Given that this was an autodialed robo-call, (which would cost all of about $500 to conduct) I find it a little surprising that Arizona Republic reporter Matt Benson would write on it – and wait until the 11th graph of the story to indicate that it was a robo-call survey.
I’ll make Matt a deal – I’ll commission a robo-call survey of 600 Arizonan’s and I’ll give him the exclusive to write the story – which I expect to be as long as this one.
You’ve got my number Matt.